Kampala, Uganda – January 4, 2026
This article is written with an understanding that our leaders are not yet tired of the colonial boundaries and that those colonial legacies form the arena where games of power intoxication continue to be played with shameless amusement. The Real Issue in this Article is; INTOXICATING POWER, which corrupts good intentions and corrupts even the best of us.
Uganda Rwandese Cultural Festival 2026
Uganda is being cooked in a deadly tribal recipe for genocide. Ethnic identity has been deliberately weaponized, fused with political power, military intimidation, regional proxy wars, and the systematic theft of national symbols to create a toxic broth that threatens to boil over into mass violence. The ingredients are all present: unchecked favoritism toward one ethnic bloc, brutal suppression of others, militarized electoral coercion, cross-border threats framed as ethnic protection, and the psychological dispossession of the entire population through the criminalization of the national flag. This is no longer abstract politics, it is the deliberate preparation of catastrophe.
A dangerous illusion now dominates mainstream NRM thinking: because the party controls the army and the guns, a genocide level event is impossible. This belief is not only complacent, it is the very foundation of the disaster. History teaches the opposite lesson with brutal clarity. Every major genocide in modern times has been enabled precisely by state monopoly over weapons and security forces. The guns do not prevent slaughter; they make it logistically feasible, swift, and overwhelming. When those weapons are held by a leadership and a mainstream base intoxicated with unchecked power and greed, the risk does not diminish, it multiplies exponentially. A group convinced of its own invincibility, convinced that no one can hold it accountable, eventually loses all restraint. That is when the threshold is crossed. That is when the country is thrown over the edge.
Compounding this peril are claims from very high ranking figures, such as the Chief of Defence Forces and a prominent media personality and leading advocate for Abavandimwe, asserting that their ethnic group, the Banyarwanda, descends from ancient Jewish bloodlines originating in Ethiopia. This narrative subtly fosters a sense of quasi duperiority over other Ugandan tribes, even those outside the ruling elite. Such assertions, rooted in speculative historical links tying Tutsi origins to Ethiopian migrations and biblical lineages, elevate one community’s self perception while marginalizing others, injecting a perilous undercurrent of exceptionalism into already fraught ethnic dynamics. This rhetoric aligns with the Chief of Defence Forces’ past statements expressing support for Tigray rebels in Ethiopia, framing them as “blood relatives” fighting against oppression, a stance critics interpret as extending ethnic solidarity across borders and potentially justifying regional interventions.
Making matters worse, influential religious leaders such as a prominent Pentecostal bishop and pastor, himself a Muvandimwe of Rwandan descent who commands thousands of followers, attended the carnival front seat and at Podium. This blended spiritual authority with ethnic mobilization, adding a dangerous religious dimension to the mix. When faith intersects with tribal narratives of superiority and historical grievance, it risks sanctifying division, turning cultural events into platforms for ideological indoctrination that could ignite broader conflict.
The most visible manifestation of this poisonous mixture occurred on January 3 at Lugogo Cricket Oval during the inaugural Abavandimwe Carnival. What was promoted as a cultural celebration quickly revealed itself as an ethnic political rally. Organized by the Council for Abavandimwe under the leadership of its prominent advocate and chairman, the event featured prominent Ugandan artists, Rwanda’s Inyamibwa Cultural Troupe, and the aforementioned Pentecostal bishop and pastor. Crowds dressed in white gathered under the banner of “unity,” but the real message emerged when the leading advocate for Abavandimwe publicly amplified the Chief of Defence Forces’ December 15, 2025 directive: “vote and go home.” Originally issued at a military promotion ceremony, this command instructed citizens to cast ballots and immediately vacate polling stations, a tactic widely condemned as designed to block vote monitoring, enable rigging, and intimidate opposition observers, just twelve days before the January 15 general elections. Critics, including a senior counsel who has been imprisoned after vehemently calling out the Chief of Defence Forces’ “Vote and Go Home” directive, have highlighted its implications.
President Museveni addressing virtually the Bavandimwe Concert -2026
Adding a layer of overt political orchestration, President Yoweri Museveni himself addressed the Carnival via a virtual screen, likely through Zoom or a similar platform, thanking the Abavandimwe community for their unwavering support of the National Resistance Movement (NRM). This virtual appearance, beamed into the event amid cheers and cultural displays, underscores a deeper agenda far removed from any genuine claims of marginalization. A community already entrenched in positions of wealth, influence, and governmental favor does not rally under banners of exclusion only to be personally commended by the head of state for partisan loyalty; this is not about redressing historical grievances or fostering inclusion. Instead, it reveals a calculated exploitation of ethnic identity as a tool for electoral consolidation, where cultural heritage is co-opted into a machinery of perpetual power retention. Museveni’s remote endorsement, delivered from the safety of his position while the nation simmers, highlights his willingness to go to any lengths to cling to authority, even if it means deepening tribal fissures, endorsing veiled threats of instability, and risking the submersion of an entire country into chaos. This unholy alliance between ethnicity and autocracy erodes the national consciousness, leaving every Ugandan unsettled by the realization that unity is a facade for control.
The Abavandimwe; “brothers” in Kinyarwanda, represent Ugandans of Rwandan descent, shaped by precolonial migrations, colonial displacements, and the mass refugee influx after the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Many integrated into Buganda society, adopting local names amid welcomes that stood in sharp contrast to Milton Obote’s 1966 exile of Kabaka Edward Muteesa II and his 1985 public dismissal of Yoweri Museveni as a “Rwandese refugee” unfit for panAfrican leadership. Museveni’s 1986 overthrow of Obote was celebrated in Buganda as liberation, leading to the 1993 restoration of the monarchy under Kabaka Ronald Muwenda Mutebi II, with Museveni facilitating the return of Muteesa’s remains (initially arranged under Idi Amin) and forging enduring alliances. These historical ties have placed individuals of Rwandan heritage in prominent positions across government, business, and security, further solidified by Museveni’s January 2025 Executive Order addressing citizenship documentation.
Yet this deep entrenchment now breeds explosive resentment. A community holding significant influence claims marginalization while unverified threats circulate of M23 style incursions if “recognition” is not granted. An openly ethnic carnival proceeds without equivalent security scrutiny or interference days before national elections while such gathering privileges denied to every other group.
The regional fuse is already lit. M23, extensively documented as receiving Rwandan support, seized Uvira on December 9–10, 2025—just days after the U.S. brokered Washington Accords for Peace and Prosperity were signed on December 4 in Washington, D.C., by DRC President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame under President Donald Trump’s mediation. While I think that the Accords didn’t sufficiently address the precolonial issues, they sought troop withdrawals, an end to backing for armed “people” groups like M23, and regional economic integration. Their immediate violation prompted U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to label it a “clear violation” with explicit warnings that the United States would act to enforce commitments. General Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s repeated X posts expressing sympathy for M23 positions, cautioning against foreign mercenaries in the DRC, and predicting rebel advances heighten fears that ethnic solidarity could import cross boprder violence into Uganda if electoral results are disputed.
This selective tolerance stands in savage contrast to the fate of other communities. In 2016, UPDF forces massacred over 150 people in the Rwenzururu Kingdom during autonomy related tensions, an operation internationally condemned as extrajudicial, yet rewarded with promotion rather than punishment. No equivalent force has ever been used against cultural gatherings or rhetoric of invading the country with M23 if not recognized, laying bare an ethnic double standard that shatters trust across Uganda’s more than sixty ethnic groups.
The recipe’s most insidious ingredient is the state’s recent assault on the national flag. Police declared on December 29–30, 2025, that displaying or using the flag requires prior approval from the Minister of Justice under the National Flag and Armorial Ensigns Act, citing “misuse” in political campaigns, statements which the now Jailed Dr. Sarah Bireete rejected vehemently. This crackdown targets the opposition National Unity Platform (NUP), which has embraced the flag as a symbol of authentic patriotism after the 2021 ban on their red berets. Thousands have waved it at rallies, tied it to vehicles, and displayed it publicly, simple acts of national love now criminalized. Bobi Wine insists the flag belongs to all Ugandans, not the regime. Human rights advocates describe the restrictions as a calculated effort to erase opposition symbolism and monopolize national identity.
Denying citizens the unrestricted right to carry their own flag is psychological dispossession on a national scale. It severs people from shared consciousness, from belonging, from the very idea of the country as theirs. When the emblem of sovereignty becomes a controlled privilege rather than a universal birthright, the state proclaims that patriotism is the ruler’s private property. This is identity theft at the highest level, an abuse so profound it requires immediate international intervention from the United Nations, African Union, and human rights mechanisms before the psychological rupture turns into physical bloodshed.
President Trump’s January 3, 2026, decisive military action in Venezuela, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife, followed by a declaration of temporary U.S. administration until transition—demonstrates readiness to confront broken commitments and threats with decisive force. With Rwanda’s Washington Accords violations still raw and Uganda entangled in ethnic favoritism, electoral coercion, regional proxy risks, and symbolic repression, the moment of truth has arrived, poor Ugandans we are scared to the death.
Uganda’s current path; militarized elections, ethnic vote blocs, historical grievances fused with proxy wars, the criminalization of the national flag, and repeated warnings of mass atrocities, follows the exact tribal recipe that produced the 1994 Rwandan genocide: ethnic scapegoating, political manipulation, selective impunity, militarized intimidation, and the dehumanization of entire communities through identity theft.
The broth is boiling. The NRM mainstream may believe the guns make them untouchable, but history shows that the guns make the fall catastrophic. Unless urgent action halts the process; equitable justice, transparent polling, unrestricted access to the national flag as every citizen’s right, rejection of ethnic exclusivity, and a return to shared national consciousness over tribal division, Uganda risks becoming the next chapter in the region’s tragic history.
The ingredients for genocide are already in the pot. The fire is lit. Cry for Uganda, cry for our children and grandchildren, we should have been better than this. What we are seeing is unholy, a truth that resonates in the consciousness of every Ugandan, leaving us all profoundly unsettled. The world must act before the broth turns to blood.
Read more about the Author here: Philip Kakungulu
Follow Philip Kakungulu oon YouTube: Peacewarrior001
References:
– New Vision article announcing the inaugural Abavandimwe Carnival on January 3, 2026, at Lugogo, with Gashumba’s comments on voting for Museveni: https://www.newvision.co.ug/category/news/abavandimwe-to-hold-inaugural-carnival-next-y-NV_224097
– Brayz Media promotion of the Abavandimwe Carnival Festival – Igitaramo at Lugogo Cricket Oval: https://brayzmedia.com/abavandimwe-carnival-festival-igitaramo-set-to-light-up-lugogo/
– Frank Gashumba’s Facebook post about the event: https://www.facebook.com/FrankGashumba/photos/the-first-ever-abavandimwe-carnival-igitaramo-3rd-january-2026cricket-oval-lugog/1457526025737102/
– Hangspots event listing for the First Ever Abavandimwe Carnival: https://hangspots.com/event/The-First-Ever-Abavandimwe-Carnival-Igitaramo-91288837
– Watchdog Uganda on Gashumba rallying Abavandimwe to support Museveni in 2026: https://www.watchdoguganda.com/community-news/20250820/182225/justice-came-frank-gashumba-rallies-abavandimwe-to-back-museveni-in-2026.html
– Nile Post on Gashumba’s praise for Museveni’s executive order and call to vote for him: https://nilepost.co.ug/frank-gashumba/239021
– Uganda Update News on police stating flag use requires Justice Minister approval: https://ugandaupdatenews.com/police-tells-ugandans-that-use-of-national-flag-is-regulated-by-law-and-needs-approval-from-the-justice-minister/
– Sunrise Newspaper on police warnings against unauthorized flag use amid campaigns: https://sunrise.ug/politics/202512/uganda-police-warns-against-unauthorized-use-of-national-flag-amid-political-campaigns
– ChimpReports on police directive for flag permission: https://chimpreports.com/get-permission-from-minister-to-use-uganda-flag-police-tell-ugandans/
– New Vision on police sensitizing public about flag rules: https://www.newvision.co.ug/category/news/beware-of-rules-governing-national-flag-usage-NV_225366
– Monitor on Muhoozi’s tweets supporting Tigray rebels: https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/magazines/people-power/2022-in-review-gen-muhoozi-s-tweets-4042590
– Britannica biography noting his Tigray support tweets: https://www.britannica.com/biography/Muhoozi-Kainerugaba
– Independent on Muhoozi’s Tigray solidarity tweets: https://www.independent.co.ug/what-is-muhoozis-twitter-game/
– The East African on Muhoozi changing tune after Tigray support: https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/muhoozi-changes-tune-on-tigray-and-backs-abiy-3928012
Pastor Aloysius Bugingo: Wikipedia profile (background on his Rwandan descent via family and ministry): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aloysius_Bugingo
– Al Jazeera on M23’s Uvira exit announcement after capture and US-brokered ceasefire issues: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/16/m23-says-it-will-exit-drcs-uvira-as-us-brokered-ceasefire-stutters
– Washington Times on M23 control of Uvira and US accusation of Rwanda violating accords: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/dec/13/fear-takes-hold-congos-uvira-m23-rebels-take-control-displacing/
– Reuters on M23 withdrawal from Uvira after US request post-capture: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/rwanda-backed-m23-group-says-it-will-withdraw-seized-congo-town-after-us-request-2025-12-16/
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