Photo credit: K24TV
In the heart of East Africa’s Great Lakes region, the specter of political transition looms large over Uganda. President Yoweri Museveni’s long tenure, now approaching four decades, has been marked by what his supporters call gains in stability and development. Yet if these gains require fierce protection from regime change, a profound question arises: Were they genuinely earned, or were they plundered in the first place? A true legacy of progress should withstand democratic shifts without fear. Instead, the push toward dynastic succession, centered on Museveni’s son General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, threatens not just Uganda but the entire region, echoing ancient ethnic tensions and risking broader instability for Bantu-speaking peoples and beyond. I invite you to examine these dynamics, grounding my argument in historical context and exposing underlying hypocrisies.
Historical Roots: From Chwezi Legends to Modern Prejudices
The idea of an ancient envy between the Buganda and Chwezi dynasties taps into Uganda’s rich, semi mythical pre colonial history. The Chwezi (or Bachwezi) dynasty is often depicted in oral traditions as a powerful empire that ruled over Bunyoro Kitara in what is now western Uganda around the 14th and 15th centuries. Its collapse led to the emergence of several kingdoms, including Buganda, which unified under Kato Kintu in the 13th century and grew into a dominant Bantu speaking power in central Uganda. While rivalries existed, particularly between Buganda and Bunyoro (a Chwezi successor), the notion of direct envy between Buganda and the Chwezi is more legendary than documented fact, rooted in myths of succession and power struggles.
Buganda’s identity as a coming together of various Bantu peoples holds partial truth: the kingdom integrated different clans and expanded through alliances, contributing to linguistic similarities across East, Central, and Southern Africa due to centuries old Bantu migrations. This is not unique to Buganda; it reflects a broader Bantu cultural phenomenon. The Chwezi, meanwhile, are mythologized with northern origins, sometimes linked to Ethiopian or Cushitic influences, adding a layer of prestige.
The linkage to the Tutsi people introduces a regional dimension. Tutsis, primarily in Rwanda and Burundi, have historical narratives claiming descent from northern migrants, possibly Ethiopian or Cushitic, which fostered notions of superiority under colonial rule. Fringe theories even connect them to Jewish bloodlines, though genetic studies suggest mixed Bantu and Nilotic roots. Colonial powers amplified these Hamitic myths, portraying Tutsis as superior invaders over Hutu natives, sowing seeds of resentment. This dehumanization culminated in the 1994 Rwanda genocide, where up to 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus were killed amid Hutu extremist propaganda. The genocide was no isolated event but a warning of red skies to come, fueled by ethnic prejudices that persist in regional politics.
Here lies a striking hypocrisy: regimes like Uganda’s National Resistance Movement decry genocide while entrenching power structures that echo similar divisions. Museveni, of Hima ancestry (related to Tutsi-Hima groups), has been accused of favoring certain ethnic networks, perpetuating perceptions of superiority.
Muhoozi Kainerugaba: From Exile to Heir Apparent
Born in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, on April 24, 1974, Muhoozi Kainerugaba grew up amid his father’s revolutionary struggles. Yoweri Museveni, then leading the Front for National Salvation in exile, trained fighters against Idi Amin’s regime. Muhoozi’s early life spanned Tanzania, Kenya, and Sweden before the family returned to Uganda after the 1986 Bush War victory. Educated at elite schools such as King’s College Budo and later Sandhurst, he rose rapidly in the military, becoming Chief of Defence Forces in 2024.
Muhoozi’s public persona mixes bravado and controversy. His statements often defend Hima-Tutsi kin, warn against violence in the DRC, and emphasize anti-genocide stances. While he has not explicitly claimed superiority, his rhetoric, praising the RPA and UPDF as Africa’s strongest forces and predicting an African Spring, fuels fears of ethnic favoritism and authoritarian flair. Critics see this as a recipe for instability.
The hypocrisy is stark: Muhoozi positions himself as a defender of marginalized groups while benefiting from a system accused of nepotism. As the Baganda proverb states, “Okulya enyinji sikugwa Maddu” (greed does not satisfy). When NRM insiders exhaust resources, infighting may ensue.
Opposition Voices: Warnings from Semujju Nganda and Winnie Byanyima
Ibrahim Semujju Nganda, a seasoned Ugandan journalist turned politician, serves as MP for Kira Municipality under the Forum for Democratic Change. With a track record of exposing corruption, earning him arrests and acclaim, he has been a vocal critic since 2011. In a pointed critique, Semujju warns: “Your son will inherit all the problems that are associated with your presidency. My advice is to allow Muhoozi live a free, normal life. If after ten years he wants to come for the presidency, it will not appear like Museveni is manipulating the systems for his son to become president. He will be rising on his own accord. But at the moment, even if he doesn’t get help from his father, it will appear that both the father and the son are using the state to prepare themselves.” He adds that Muhoozi can only become leader because of the gun, not through NRM structures or personal resources, and without state backing he doubts Muhoozi would get even two percent of the vote.
Winnie Byanyima, executive director of UNAIDS since 2019, boasts a formidable career: aeronautical engineer, former MP from 1994 to 2006, diplomat, and former Oxfam International director. Married to opposition leader Kizza Besigye, she has deep stakes in Uganda’s politics, often clashing with the regime. Her prophetic words from a 2021 interview ring true: “In the next five years, we are going to see him make every effort to prepare and to install his son as the next president of our country. He is going to do this in many ways: handing him his party, the National Resistance Movement; making changes in the military so that this man, who is incompetent, a loose cannon, threatens other countries, abducts citizens, tortures, and is proud; possibly making some changes in the constitution to ensure that he and his son continue to lead this country the way they want, without law, by force. That is the plan.”
Regional Ramifications: A Problem for All
Muhoozi’s potential rule could ignite tensions across the Great Lakes, where ethnic lines blur. Defending M23 rebels in the DRC as brothers risks escalating conflicts, affecting Bantu communities from Uganda to South Africa. The biblical echo, “store gains where no moth and rust can reach” (Matthew 6:19-20), serves as a somber reminder: earthly power, if ill gotten, corrodes.
In sum, Uganda’s succession is not mere politics; it is a tinderbox of history, hypocrisy, and hubris. Genuine gains need no guards; only plunder does. For the region’s sake, a peaceful, merit-based transition is imperative, lest the red skies return.
Read more about the Author here: Philip Kakungulu
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